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My Forex Investment - Strong FOREX Price - EUR / USD ....

A new week had the Euro upward this week, closing at 1.2714 compared with 1.2691 the previous week's close.

As last week we did not dare to say where it might go to the market, this week we keep the same uncertainty, amounting to not know what is affecting the market FOREX EUR / USD. Great news

and were negative during the week, which would shake up the market earlier today was only small shocks to keep the same prices.

Fundamental Analysis

While news delivered this week to finish have been disastrous with a reduction in employment in the United States in more than 533,000 jobs (scoring records), in areas declared recession in Europe and the United States, with Germany being the engine of the Eurozone, with a reduction in industrial production the order of 6.1% and the FOREX Market EUR / USD was not affected too much.

addition, products that previously were so correlated as Oil, which closed during the week closing a little over $ 40.44 weekly scoring a low 20% and the market FOREX EUR / USD did not show great variation.

Apparently the market is convinced that the Euro price is 1.2700 and news not affecting the price ... or is so strong and true that all the negative news has included in it.

For fundamental analysis we remain uncertain and prefer not to take a position on it. What I recommend is that there be very careful because when the price begins to trend it will take a consideration.
long term, we maintain our forecast of a stronger dollar against the Euro.

Technical Analysis

Our technical analysis differs from fundamental analysis, noting the one hand an imminent confrontation with mainstream line which should define the future of the Euro price trend. If clearly breaks should start an upward cycle, if it bounces should go down hard.

Our technical oscillators have positive slope which is a sign that the price should be rising, but we can see that the price, although it has risen, it has not been with the force we are accustomed, on the other hand, This slight rise just with the ability to detect a difference ...

For technical analysis have a slight signal increase in the price of the Euro in the market, however not significant. The following figure shows our-planting:



In conclusion by fundamental analysis can not get a clear signal the euro price direction and technical analysis can determine a mild recommendation that the market should go higher, but we believe that it is not worth the risk, and perhaps is advisable to keep on the lookout and wait for the imminent Euro clash with mainstream line.

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My Forex Investment - waiting ....

As we announced last week, the situation was room for disagreement in the market to go long EUR / USD, although, we can congratulate this successful performance, consider step up precautions this week ... because We believe this first week of December may be given great surprises.

The month of November ended with a Euro to $ 1.2691, adding the fifth consecutive month that the Euro weakens against the dollar, however the week closes and the second consecutive week to boost the market FOREX EUR / USD. Basically, much of the gains by the Euro during the week was given during this last Friday, going back nearly 200 pips.

Fundamental Analysis

Now it's the turn of the European Central Bank to lower interest rates ... there is plenty of space to deliver the data of inflation in the Euro, because it was the lowest since 1991. Falling interest rates is imminent, the question is how: some say a half-point, three room. In any case, this information will be delivered this coming Thursday (see economic calendar Forex in courses). This can be added that the Fed has little room to maneuver to put the interest rate to 1%. Bringing great pressure to lower Euro.

On the other hand, this also will be delivered next Friday's unemployment data for the U.S. economy, which last month was disastrous ... and predictions for this month are not optimistic, but perhaps a good surprise can bring little more strength to the U.S. Dollar.

think that the news will have a strong impact on the market Forex EUR / USD, so one can only hope ... and to this our recommendation to remain extremely cautious during the week.

Technical Analysis

Our technical indicators are aligned with the price of the Euro, once the gap has been overcome with the rise of the Euro during the week. However, with the sharp decline in the price of Euro on Friday reminded us of the high volatility and instability that persists in the financial markets.

If we see our graph, we appreciate that the Euro price is among the line acceleration and to overcome and the main trend line downward, you can say that the price is within the congestion zone and is very possible that you can see a small channel between maximum and minimum (in the figure not shown), this channel will not consider it a very valid, although it has interesting points as strength in the 1.3000 and 1.2300 based on ...

Our

Technical indicators tell us that the price of the Euro should continue to rise, as we see using the RSI. Although the stochastic indicator has given a sell signal Euros. Ie our technical indicators tell us conflicting information.

In short, it is clear that the market FOREX EUR / USD is in a phase of high volatility and uncertainty, also no doubt that the market is waiting for news to be delivered later this week ( Thursday and Friday). We believe that operate at this time is very risky due to two main reasons: fundamental analysis is pending news that may shake up the market and technical analysis information is contradictory ... sometimes gives great Furtos patience ...

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My Forex Investment - Divergence in the EUR / USD ....

A new week of crisis could be seen in financial markets, leading to big falls in major stock indexes in the world. Large companies and corporations like General Motors and Citibank have fallen into the stock market to new levels, suggesting to many that the crisis is far from having passed and now it's up to the market "real" sense, ie market goods and consumption, and the labor market. Many analysts who once said the worst was over, now do not venture to indicate a date or a limit of this crisis.

This is backed up by the behavior of investors who have taken refuge in the major currencies, which are the Dollar and the Yen, making the price of the Euro has fallen to levels of 2006.

Such volatility in currency markets and to have ended at a point similar to that started during the week gives us to understand that there is a certain calmness and balance ... perhaps the calm before the storm ...

Fundamental Analysis

This week the dollar was flat closing at a price of 1.2582 dollars per euro, 1.2594 against the last week. As mentioned once high correlation with the dollar price of oil remains in force and, to fall in the price of oil has continued Sidon and unrelenting pointing the way for a stronger dollar.

However, they begin to hear voices that indicate that the fall of the Euro should be coming to an end, because the falling price of oil at some point should have a significant rebound when she begins to feel the demand for fuel by emerging markets like China and India.

For fundamental analysis we think the market is still undecided and may have an adjustment to the declining dollar, ie a rise in the price of Euro. Although we maintain our long-term projection that the dollar should be further strengthened.

Technical Analysis

The price of the Euro is in a congestion phase and its variation has been almost Impresept this week, closing with a negligible difference compared to the previous week. However, it seems that the Euro is gathering energy ...

As we see in our next figure, we see that the Euro price and technical indicator RSI are diverging (see: Forex Courses ). If we follow the technical theory, this divergence should translate into a strong desire for a Euro price rises, and a weakening dollar.



This divergence would be like a signal optimism in this crisis, because a change to an uptrend in the dollar would result in increased confidence in the stock market (less to investors covering Dollars) implying as signs of economic recovery.


In summary, we think it is very possible that there is Euro price recovery in the short term, but we arguing that the price of the Euro should continue to fall in the long term.

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My Forex Investment - Possible adjustment of Euro ....

A new week is about to begin and uncertainty, illiquidity and nervousness in the markets remained constant throughout the week.

The G20 meeting is setting the standard to "prevent" the occurrence of economic crises of this nature again. Designing government policies and specific controls on financial institutions. However, little has been said about the solution to this crisis in particular. Nor did we have seen a turning point in the environment in the financial markets ...

Fundamental Analysis

A new low was the week the Euro against the Dollar on Market Forex. While low during this week was not radical when closing in a Euro 1.2594 U.S. dollars as opposed to 1.2717 dollars a week, continues to mark a line downward trend. Bad

economic projections Eurozone and the U.S., recession in Germany, Italy, UK, Spain. The projections for 2009 are shrinking, unemployment rising and is expected that by 2010 the world economy changes direction and restart the cycle of sustained growth.

Our fundamental approach remains: the U.S. dollar is still the main global currency and in this time of crisis, all take refuge in low-risk financial instruments and investment dollars is the principal. And ls leading analysts argued that first the United States should have signs of recovery and then Europe.

Technical Analysis

As we announced last week, once the price of the Euro broke the-line acceleration to the low price was possible to enter a stage of congestion and congestion this stage (unchecked upward or downward) should end when the price cap with the main trend line.

However, when the price is in a congestion phase are very useful technical oscillators, so we did our analysis of technical oscillators:

We see that our technical Stochastic oscillator delivery a clear buy signal, ie the Euro should have a recovery during the week.

The MACD also notes that the price of the Euro should rise


So there may be a price adjustment to the rise of the Euro this coming week. However, we maintain our estimate of the Euro in the long term should continue to decline.

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My Forex Investment - Investment Uncertainty

A new week is about to begin and stock markets are nervous. Important events could be seen during the week, mainly the United States elections to which Wall Street responded "somewhat nervous" before a comment President-elect to say that rule to "Main Street" (main street) and not for "Wall Street". However, the market closing on Friday reassured blue.

Another event of importance during this coming week will be a big meeting of G 20, the results could mark a new milestone in the financial markets. This meeting indicates a new world precedent that is the recognition by the major economies of the world that this crisis is global and the solution or at least the measures to be taken will be comprehensive and coordinated. Finally, we called the attention of the leadership to take the Brazilian economy, maybe we'll see soon Brazilian Real in FOREX platforms ...

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. economy continues to show negative results, with a loss of jobs to 240,000 (Non-Farm Payroll) and unemployment rises to 6.5% of the workforce, against 6.1% the previous period. Also the U.S. housing market shows signs of weakness he gives a fall of 4.6% compared with September.
As for the Euro zone, although the news is not encouraging as well, reducing interest rates by the European Central Bank to 3.25 points, implying that future are also low come indicates a strong downward pressure on Euro.
The market has taken the situation on both sides of the Atlantic as a situation where "tables", maybe slightly in favor of the dollar.

summing up of our fundamental analysis we need the Fed is running short of ammunition to stimulate domestic demand, in contrast to the Euro zone where the European Central Bank still has to have an operating margin rate of 3, 25% allowing for further reductions. Therefore, we hold that the Euro should continue to weaken against the dollar in the long term.

Technical Analysis

As we predicted, the Euro broke the trend line downward acceleration, whose next stop should be facing the main trend line (see figure below).




This way, you can take through a secondary trend upward or congestion (to be relatively flat). Apparently, due to instability in the markets, it is likely that the second option, ie a phase where congestion is the path taken by the Euro. Within this phase are very useful technical oscillators.

Our technical oscillators are in the middle, ie a non-marking trend to continue, once again adding a level of uncertainty in the direction taken by the market.

In summary, we think that uncertainty as the main focus is now on the market FOREX EUR / USD . deem it wise not to take sides at this time and wait for the Euro that faces the main trend line

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My Forex - Markets Expectation

The Euro closed the month again lower against the dollar. This is the fourth consecutive month that the Euro is scored low. However, to see the weekly chart we can see that the Euro closed slightly higher at the beginning of the week at 1.2633 and 1.2730 to finish in the Dollar.

On the other hand, World stock markets could take a break in this week to see significant increases in their prices along with reduced volatility. Apparently, they are giving the first signs of some stability in financial markets.

not forget that this week will be elections in the United States so it is possible that during this week do not have strong market movements until after November 4.

Fundamental Analysis

The interest rate in the United States this week fell 1%, in line with market expectations. Immediately could see some reaction stock markets and a slight adjustment in the fall of the euro against the dollar - making the value of the euro back on 1.3000.

Now is the turn of the other central banks, starting with the European Central Bank must announce the new interest rate in the euro area on 6 November. All bets are down and this would bring a new impetus to the downward trend of the Euro. However, we believe this momentum should not be of great magnitude if the rate reduction is moderate because the market should have internalized this.

important indicators must be announced within this week is the level of employment in the United States this Friday. The market commitment to an unemployment rate of 6.2%. \\

For fundamental analysis we maintain a steady decline of the euro against the dollar.

Technical Analysis

not have been big changes since last week, from a technical standpoint. We still see that the price is under a trend line to the main floor, and even within a line acceleration downward, as shown in our next figure.



Technical indicators do not provide conclusive information on a possible adjustment or continuation of the dollar against the Euro.

Possible scenarios from a technical point of view are that the price can break the line acceleration with which the price of the Euro should rise again over the 1.3000 and stay up for awhile. Or on their way down the line acceleration becoming a resistance of consideration.

In summary, we argue that long-term maintain a low Euro against the dollar, now if the price breaks the line of acceleration is possible to produce a pause in the fall of the Euro and return to levels above 1.3000. Everything should depend upon the announcement of the new interest rate in the euro area this November 6.

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My Forex Investment - Time of Crisis

A turbulent week is almost over, stock markets have continued with a brutal volatility. Amazing historical lows and have appreciated, low in the order of 9% in one day.

The "crisis" is affecting all sectors, some sectors of the products has been as precipitous as the stock market. With oil at 64 USD and the price of copper at $ 1.64 a pound. And they all ask the same questions: Where is the floor? and When will affect the markets 'real'?.

The first question, but nobody is certain, there is talk of Dow Jones with super flat for the 7500 points and the second question has no response at this time.

ads are seen strategic summits of the major countries of the world, elections in the United States can bring a change of "mind" and some return of confidence. There is talk of "refound" the system and total intervention ... What else can be done to return investment?.

Fundamental Analysis

The Euro has to continue to fall against the Dollar, the Euro zone exposure, note that the big banks that have lent money to emerging markets are Europeans. And commodity prices have collapsed and you will start to produce at a loss as the case of copper mining.

Major Euro-zone countries like Germany show signs of contraction in economic activity, that country being the powerhouse of Europe.

However, the most important data indicating that the Euro should continue to depreciate against the dollar is that investors are being covered with hard currency, the main and then Dollar Yen.
For fundamental analysis hold a continuation of the low price of Euro against the Dollar. And it is very possible that we return to him 1 to 1 in the near future. We do not see anything that may hold the Euro at the moment.

Technical Analysis

Making a brief chart analysis we can see that the price of the Euro is in a bearish line acceleration and turn away from the main trend line downward.
This opens the way to a possible price adjustments without necessarily mean a turnaround.

on our technical indicators are clearly oversold in the area, but when the price is with a strong tendency reliability is reduced. Therefore we consider not take them into account.

All this you can see in the following figure:


In summary, we believe that we should maintain a low price Euro against the Dollar.

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My Forex Investment - Congestion Markets

A new week is about to begin and volatility in financial markets along with high liquidity (ie very few people investing) is the constant.

world's stock markets have yet to find their way to make a solid upward trend for retrieving historical losses have been in recent weeks.

Forex Market, for its part has also been shaken by the illiquidity causing many businesses can not be made. And especially the Forex market EUR / USD did not show a high volatility during the past week the Euro closing at $ 1.3408 versus the previous week in 1.3394 - making a difference almost negligible.

Fundamental Analysis

As we have mentioned several times the currency of a country and no area is more than the economic health of this compared to another area or country. That is, when talking about the Euro and the Dollar compared the economic situation facing each other. At this point both economies show great weakness and is common to hear "bailout" on both sides of the Atlantic. Therefore we predict that major changes in this market should not occur in the short term.

add great liquidity, property main in times of crisis when investors "hide" their money and take refuge in low-risk financial products such as Treasury Bonds U.S..

All this leads us to predict that the market should behave plan, as the same volatility of the NYSE the European stock markets suffer. Still
argue that the Euro should continue to weaken against the dollar because interest rates in the euro area still has much room to lower, while the Fed at a rate of 1.5% per year seems to be that you are on your floor

Technical Analysis Technical analysis also
gives us clear trend signals. At this moment the Euro is in a large downward trend in our chart analysis, however, the line broke down acceleration (see article above) with which he did enter the price in a congestion zone.

As the days pass the Euro price will be faced with two lines of resistance, one that should draw earlier this week in which the price of the Euro - the breaks - should be strengthened or else it could send down. Then, it would be the main trend line that if were to break would be a clear sign of change in trend.

Our technical indicators support our view that the market is waiting, we appreciate our RSI indicator with a slight negative slope indicating that the price is still in a downtrend, but with great weakness.

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My Forex Investment - Unstable Markets

On the crisis that the world is facing, apart from total shock, we can not bet on any short-term solution, which itself could venture timidly is that the end of it (ie low bags) would soon happen and many analysts think there is room for a drop of 10% ... still is, a black week more to start taking some upward trend ... but we repeat that it is a timid assessment.

Fundamental Analysis

A new low came in the forex market EUR / USD. Due to the low rate of European Central Bank (although the rate has also declined in the United States). However, the spaces to reduce the rate is much larger in the euro area, therefore the market bet on further declines in the euro area.
now betting on the Euro is that it should reach $ 1.25.

Technical Analysis Technical analysis on we see that the Euro is in a downward trend, we think that technical indicators are not relevant against a tendency so marked, and of course there are all these into the oversold zone. Due to the volatile market we see a definite prediction impossible.




In summary, we believe that markets are a very unstable and it is advisable to stay away for now. And as always, maintain our vision of a stronger dollar against the Euro.

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My Forex Investment - Possible adjustment

During the week the dollar has gained ground to record levels against the Euro. After approval by Congress of U.S. rescue plan by the government of the United States amounting to 700 billion dollars.

The dollar has advanced 5.7% during the week to close at 1.3772, the biggest gain in a week since the advent of the Euro in 1999, setting a record.

Fundamental Analysis

markets set a price based on supply and demand. And both the supply and demand have a number of factors such as expectations, differences in interest rates, etc. In this case, the price of the dollar has strengthened against the Euro because of demand for funds either to fill positions or to cover a "bailout."

U.S. economic indicators have been worse than expected, the level of employment based on the "Non-Farm Payroll" fell to 159,000 jobs, while the market expected a reduction in 100,000. This indicates that the recession is far from gone, and our perception of the "worst" and happened was wrong. All this should give a strong pressure on the dollar in its devaluation, but the opposite is happening with your assessment.

think the market is demanding a lot of dollars against the Euro (note that the Yen has appreciated) because institutions have to cover the bailout. And once this demand has been satisfied the Euro should have a strong rebound upward, assuming it meets the bad indicators.

Technical Analysis

In technical analysis is taking a very interesting situation: the price of Euro faces a line downward acceleration with a high slope, our technical indicators are in the overbought zone. Everything seems to be that the Euro is ready to rebound. As shown in the figure below.




If the price of Euro breaks through the line acceleration is expected a rebound in mind that surely should lead price on 1.4000. If he fails should maintain its free fall.


In conclusion, we think the price of the dollar is rising against the euro due to large institutions have to cover their positions due to the government's emergency plan in the United States and technical analysis we face a strong possibility that Euro rebound and the market adjust.
We maintain our view that the dollar is in a bullish trend against the Euro.

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My Dollar Investment Forex - Rescue confirmed

There is great caution on the part of operators to enter positions in the financial markets. We have seen how the illiquidity due to the large uncertainty on the markets to be hit by the news of the bankruptcy of major investment banks in the United States.

While the "price" in the currency markets have not been startled, and the Euro has been appreciated and the yen with a clear upward trend, and this reflected in a simple chart analysis, all voices are recommending no enter the Forex markets with large positions.

Fundamental Analysis Of

has been breaking news that has reached an agreement to bailout U.S. financial sector. The details of this agreement was due to give released Monday. Certainly the stock market opened with a strong rise and a degree of optimism should increase the confidence of the American economy, and with it a rise in the dollar against their peers.

Other financial indicators in the U.S. economy have negative growth expectations have declined as the production of durable goods has been lower than expected.

Technical Analysis

The price of the Euro closed at 1.4586 just above our trend line upward. Leaving the expectations the way you can take. We

our Stochastic technical indicator indicates a clear sell signal, ie go short in the market Forex EUR / USD.

The figure below shows the above.



If the price of Euro breaks the uptrend line would be a very clear signal to go short because as indicated in the chart analysis as indicators. If the price bounces up there would be a signal to go long.

As mentioned, the currency market illiquidity has a large and our recommendation would be not to open big positions, and we think the Euro direction should be lower, because of our technical analysis.

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My Forex Investment - A week of film

During this week financial markets have been shaken like never before. Accompanied with low systemic financial disasters like bankruptcy of major investment banks in the United States. A crisis that we all thought that it was happening on that side of the Atlantic ... unthinkable a world financial sector in ruins ... But as Hollywood movies came the cavalry to the rescue with an unprecedented emergency program. The reaction was immediate in financial markets worldwide to record records of increases in their indexes.

Fundamental Analysis The U.S. financial sector fell to levels of the Great Depression 1929, however, unlike that time, the U.S. government announced an unprecedented plan to return the investor confidence to financial instruments.

The mortgage crisis is deeper than we had estimated and the news has surprised everyone. This crisis has produced a lack of liquidity in the currency markets. Currently

see the future with great uncertainty about what may happen in the FOREX Market EUR / USD. On the one hand we have a confirmation on the deteriorating growth prospects in the euro zone, pushing the euro lower. And secondly, a U.S. economy that will strive to maintain a competitive advantage to heal the financial sector, pushing the dollar lower. Important News

to be expected is the implementation of the measures the government of the United States Congress.

We predict a large market stability FOREX EUR / USD in conjunction with a large illiquidity. We recommend to stay away for now.

Technical Analysis

We see that the price of the Euro has broken the main trend line down marking the end of the bullish rally of the dollar against their peers.

Currently the Forex market EUR / USD may go back into an upward trend or just enter a cycle of congestion where points would be close to 1.4500 and not less than 1.4000.

Our technical indicators clearly indicates a long-term bullish advising enter the Euro. As we see in our next picture.



After seeing how critical financial markets are recommend to stay away for now. And if you want to open positions in EUR / USD would recommend go along with a very tight Take Profit.

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My Forex Investment - Week of Uncertainty

A new week is about to begin, ending this week with a Euro rebounded strongly, making up the price of the euro against the dollar in more than 300 pips in a couple of days.

With oil trying to lose $ 100 a gallon seems to be a stage of uncertainty ...

Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis

For most true is that apparently the Fed is not very interested in maintaining a very Dollar high relative to their peers. And his decision to intervene in the market may be through a new cut rates and for this scenario there is some space due to lower oil prices by more than 30% from its peak close to 1.4700 dollars a barrel.
the Fed's decision will be announced this Tuesday September 16th at 19:15 GMT. The market expects the rate to remain at 2%. Any change may indicate the direction of the Euro, either low (if the rate rises) or up (if the Fed lowers its rate).

Technical Analysis

The recovery of the Euro from 1.3871 to end the week on the 1.4200 and all this in two days indicates the presence of an upward trend of the Euro. Yet to be confirmed, as can be seen as a simple rebound.

If we see our chart, we see that the price of the Euro is approaching the main trend line downward. And when faced with it we can confirm a trend change if it passes or simply send Euro price back down.


while technical indicators are showing signs of turnaround, this is not confirmed because they have not overcome the slope. Opening room for doubt of what might come here. While technically
, technical indicators can give some signal, chart analysis indicates that "nothing has happened yet." Therefore it is advisable to wait what will happen to the price of the Euro as it touches the trendline.

As always, if it bounces it is advisable to go short, and if the wait exceeds the turnaround. Basically

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My Forex Investment - A week RED

can be defined the past week as "not positive" for financial markets. Well as for the Euro area to the United States.

could see a drop in the stock exchanges sustained and violent. Setbacks beat all world markets. However, the market assigned the worst part for the Euro ... surpassing the 10% down from peak levels of 1.6037.

Fundamental Analysis

much as the Euro area as the North American region showed negative economic indicators. The American zone showed an unemployment rate far worse than expected, and along with this showed that two major financial companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require government intervention to overcome their crisis. This is a very bad sign, but we believe that the market already had taken and the impact on the price of the dollar is not very significant (but managed to close the dollar to rise in the last hours of Friday the rumor only ...) .

The United States government is committed to not to drop the U.S. financial sector, this translates into the following: 1 .- The mortgage problem in the United States is unresolved. 2 .- There is a certain relief by the United States.

The price of oil, which has a high correlation with the market FOREX EUR / USD has also shown a sharp drop in prices and apparently the next resistance should be close to the 1.00.

For we believe that fundamental analysis FOREX EUR / USD should enter a period of congestion or indecision with high volatility during the week.

Technical Analysis

Technically the market FOREX EUR / USD is in free fall, it appears that the Euro is depreciating sharply and there are analysts who think that the Euro should reach 1.3300.

As we announced the price of the Euro had to touch the trend line down and bounce down sharply this led to lower prices more than 300 EURO.

The following figure shows that low price is complete and the RSI technical indicator shows a negative slope (low signal), but in the oversold area.



Technically we think it can make some adjustments to the price as it is far from the trend line, in addition to closing the day in positive supports our position is a possible correction

For technical analysis , we think the market FOREX EUR / USD might make some corrections, but projections remain low in the euro and a stronger dollar.

recommend going short once the price rebound in the trend line.

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My Forex Investment - Closing Night

The dollar ended the month of August with their biggest rise since 1999. More than 900 pips against the Euro has fallen against the dollar. The main reasons for this rise in the dollar are two: Falling oil prices and strengthening U.S. economy.

Fundamental Analysis

As mentioned before the European economic situation was weak growing. In other words, the Euro zone economy is in the midst of the storm, while the U.S. economy is showing clear signs that the crisis is ending. All this should be reflected in the employment indicators are to be delivered this Friday (non farm payrols). If the employment of the United States presented good results (see http://www.cursos-forex.com/Calendario_economico.html selecting the date Friday, 5 September) we could say that the recession in the United States is now finally . Giving rise to a stronger dollar against the Euro of considerations that could readily lead under 1.4000.

This strengthening of the dollar should be accompanied with oil prices due to high correlation with both. Please note that the price of oil has a seasonality, and now that the northern hemisphere summer is ending (in winter increases demand and therefore the price) may retreat in oil prices is not as fast as everyone expects.

For fundamental analysis we maintain our projection of a stronger dollar. Therefore, we recommend going short in the market Forex EUR / USD.

Technical Analysis of the Euro price once passed the accelerating trend downward entered a stage of congestion, showing a resistance near 1.4800 and close to the 1.5500 support.
Yet the price of the EUR against the dollar has not touched the main trend line. Once the tap is likely to send prices sharply down, and think it is possible to generate a new line of acceleration to the downside. All this can be seen in the following figure.



On the technical indicators, as mentioned above, are not very useful when the price is trending. However, due to the breakdown of the accelerating trend line above we can see that the financial indicators have left the oversold area making room for a new steepest descent.

By analysis technical we can say that if the price bounces off the main trend line should be strong and go short if exceeded wait to see the new direction can take the price.

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My Forex Investment - August 24 - Crash Imminent

As indicated last week it was very likely to be a fit in the EURUSD FOREX market allowing the Euro to regain ground and this adjustment allowed the Euro move up to 1.4900, rebounding and closing one in the 1 , 4793.
The dollar has gained nearly 8% against the Euro since its peak at 1.6038, while oil has fallen nearly 22% from 147 a barrel to close at 114 a barrel.

Fundamental Analysis

The correlation between oil and the dollar has once again shaken the market. It was found on Thursday as the oil strongly advance the Euro did the same climbing to 1.4900.

Within the week, listening to Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, we see that we are entering uncertain ground, noting that inflationary expectations are uncertain. Dollar steady with a fall in prices of products (commodities) reduce inflationary pressure in the United States certainly, but no one can guarantee this trend ...

U.S. economic indicators show no significant improvement, and can be seen that indicators of home sales in the United States remains at an unsatisfactory area (note that if this indicator shows improvement would be an indicator that the recession in the United States has been completed and would enter a new stage completely).

The Euro zone economic indicators and the forecasts show a weak economy, therefore we can say that economic expectations in the euro area remain the same as last week.

Technical Analysis

As noted earlier, it was quite possible that a market adjustment FOREX EUR / USD, and we see how the Euro breaks the line acceleration. Now, the Euro price will be facing the main trend line (brown) and the outcome of this clash should indicate the direction of the Euro.



Our technical indicators, which are not very useful when the price is trending, but we always recommend looking at them, have left us that the oversold area paving the way for a new low. As shown in the figure above, we can see the stochastic indicator, and positively sloped away from the oversold area.

For fundamental analysis we can see a degree of uncertainty, which surely should resolve with inflation indicators in the U.S. and the eurozone, and especially with the results of the employment situation of the United States the first Friday in September. While our technical analysis indicates that the Euro should face the main trend line. If you can not cross recommend going short.

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My Investment Forex - Dollar uptrend!

All we have seen how the dollar and oil have maintained their correlation. Oil retreating more than 20% from its peak, and the stronger dollar is 10% from its low against the EUR.

Fundamental Analysis

Indicators U.S. economy still giving mixed values \u200b\u200band the results are significant negative indicators such as housing which was a minimum of 17 years, making us think that the cause of the economic crisis in America is not completely overcome.

On the other hand, the Euro zone continues to display indicators in the United Kingdom joining RED bordering a recessionary situation. More than one view, the fact is that the housing crisis is already in Europe.
Low oil
provides a certain margin of maneuver for the European Bank to lower the rate.

Therefore, by maintaining a critical analysis of the dollar recovery against the Euro. Therefore, in the FOREX Market EUR / USD recommend going short.

Technical Analysis

The Euro has been falling faster, better, keeping meteoric consecutive 5-week low.

We see in the chart analysis of the Euro the price is within a line of downward acceleration. And there may be an adjustment to the trend line to the main floor.



All technical indicators show on sale, but the technical indicators are not very reliable when the price is trending as in our case, we think are signs that can produce a setting.

Anyway the forecast remains go short on the market FOREX EUR / USD

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My Forex Investment - August 2 - A beautiful canal ...

A new week is about to begin and we welcome as our tests have been successful. Always maintaining restraint, caution and discipline we deserved to congratulate the success of our recent operations.
As we have mentioned several times, all of our analysis have a temporary account daily to weekly, so do not recommend intraday operations.

Anyway, back to our favorite Forex market, which is the EUR / USD we can see that the price is within a beautiful downstream channel, which challenges us to take positions.

addition to the above two announcements rocked the forex market EUR / USD: a loss that was smaller than expected jobs in the United States and other bad news for the economy in the euro area, this time in Germany where the indicator retail sales (detail), an important indicator for measuring consumer, fell more than expected (1.4%).

Fundamental Analysis

Despite the result of non-farm-payroll better than expected, the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy was worse than expected. There is no doubt that the U.S. economy is having mixed indicators, becoming positive surprises better than negative surprises. And neither can deny that the news from the euro zone are getting worse, ie, negative economic indicators are increasingly seeing.

Oil continued to bounce off its low for the area of \u200b\u200b$ 120, closing the week at $ 125 a barrel. The price closed higher, but we think the uptrend is over. A complete analysis was performed on the following link for a student of one of our sponsors Forex courses. In which states that it is very possible that oil will drop further.

The level of employment in the U.S. economy probably will become the focus of importance to measure the recovery - the indicators given an unemployment rate of 5.7% when 5.6% was expected. This suggests that the Fed would not soon raise rates.

On the other hand, Europe, with lower oil prices reduce inflationary pressure, more negative economic indicators makes us think that the Euro area should maintain the interest rate.

For fundamental analysis we think the dollar should be further strengthened and every hike that the Euro is expected a rebound.

Technical Analysis

The price of the Euro is in a beautiful canal and the price closed down together in the middle of it. Technically, the price should rise in the early days of the week should not exceed 1.5680. It is hoped that once touch the top of the channel the price should come down. Surely the next stop should be the 1.5350 low. After overcoming the price could easily reach 1.5000 (But it's for later).

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My Forex Investment - July 26 - alert and ready ....

the dollar closed 0.9% higher against the Euro, the negative end of the Euro against the dollar marks a second consecutive week of weakening.

News of the European economies are weak and many analysts think the dollar is coming back. Predicting a low price of 1.5000 by the end of the year.

Fundamental Analysis

As we have mentioned repeatedly, there are different forces pushing the dollar to a different address. As the main U.S. and European economic situation.

The U.S. economic situation is giving better results in fact some are surprising. Thus we have indicators of housing in the United States were mixed (expected bad). A result worse than expected was the home sales on Thursday handed over 24 to 15:00 GMT. However, the sale of new homes delivered on Friday, 25 gave a surprising 6% higher than expected - the results of both indicators were within the range. Anyway we can conclude that U.S. economic indicators are improving a lot.

On the other hand, we have the results of the European economy and the inflationary problems found. All this leads to a pessimistic picture on the Euro area, is a clear example the level of pessimism in Germany where the day indicator 24 on Thursday economic sense for business was worse than expected.

An interesting point is the oil situation, which has fallen more than 10% in the last 2 weeks without having passed into consideration Forex EUR / USD.

All this can lead to the conclusion that there is much room for strengthening the dollar, but this closed higher, and it is advisable to see our technical analysis

Technical Analysis

If we see our figure, we see Bollinger Bands ( Forex courses) in which the price bounced off the bottom band making the Euro rises to approach the moving average.

On our technical indicators have mixed results according to the current situation. On the one hand and the RSI indicators that do not define the situation, on the other, indicating stochastic oversold signal, the momentum indicated a downward trend.

What is certain, that the price stays in its channel side, making our oscillators are more important than ever.

think that it is expected that the price to the early hours of Monday's rise a little further to 1.5800 levels, to meet the moving average. If you manage to pass it (which I do not think) should return to the levels of the past few weeks, but would have the desired rebound that should push hard to the 1.5500 area.

bet to a stronger dollar, and we recommend going short with the Euro where it can rebound (probably in the area of \u200b\u200b1.5800)

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My Forex Investment - July 20 "The Return of the Dollar?"

As I mentioned last week, the euro would inevitably face the super strength of 1.6000 ... as a result of this confrontation there was a strong rebound that led to the low price of 1.5800, before recovering rising to close at 1.5855.

The economic situation in the United States remains fragile, however you can see an improvement. It is the first time in a long time that the credit sector delivers positive news as large financial institutions like Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co would be reporting better results for the second quarter. Within this plan, the biggest news remarkable is the willingness of the Fed to support the company's losses Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac credit attacking the problem at its root.

Fundamental Analysis

forces pushing for a lower dollar has lost ground, we see a sharp drop in oil prices, over 10%, breaking the uptrend line. This dramatic fall can be a crude indication that the famous "bubble of the products being deflating ...

On the other hand, European, and especially of Germany delivered very encouraging values \u200b\u200bsuch as confidence level investors has fallen to levels records. Another example is the result measured in Scotland where you could see a sharp contraction in manufacturing. All this gives us clear signs of weakness in the euro area.

And finally we have a situation optimistic the U.S. economy, on one hand the financial sector to deliver better results than expected and the other a government attitude of attacking the root problem.

For Fundamental analysis can not appreciate a better situation for the dollar recovery.

However, our attention EXTREME that the Euro has closed higher, with a collapse of oil, the odds for a dollar more strong and a weaker Euro. All this leads us to be very cautious.

think the market is still in doubt, the Euro price is stable, and certainly the direction it takes this week could mark the medium-term trend. News
advertised are interesting indicators of the housing market to be delivered on Thursday related to mortgages and stocks Friday as expected level of new mortgage sales in the United States

Technical Analysis

Price Euro hit a record high of over 1.6000 (reaching up to 1.6040) but there was strong rebound sending the price up to 1.5900 Euro. And then continue down to the 1.5800 area bouncing back to close at 1.5855 rising.

Our technical indicators give mixed signals, first the stochastic indicates further decline, the RSI indicates neutrality, the momentum indicates that the price of the Euro should rise.



What I can say is that is being compared with 2 resistors, one higher in the 1.6000 and another at 1.5800. Where to drill the price will make a definite trend.

In conclusion, for all fundamental analysis indicates a strengthening of the dollar against the Euro, while you are waiting for further news as the result of real estate in the United States to be delivered at the end of the working week. And technical analysis can be seen lateralization of prices and make a definite trend. If the price drops are recommended to enter the 1.5800 short.

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My Forex Investment - July 13 "the moment of truth"

This week, the Euro closed at 1.5932 dollars, almost a record ... The financial indicators of the U.S. economy made a big warning sign to be released the wrong time and the company Fannie Freddie specializing in mortgage loans.

The state's main buyer mortgage debt is unfortunate, implying that not enough capital to cover mortgage losses.
to disclosure of this news the market reacted violently by devaluing the dollar in the FOREX market about 1% in just one day.

Fundamental Analysis

think that conditions have not changed, the price of the dollar is still influenced by the price of the dollar, as well as economic indicators of the U.S. economy is showing slight signs recovery, or at least are within the ranges the market expects.

However, the news about Fannie and Freddie is a blow because the "source" of the crisis (mortgage crisis) is not yet resolved.

In Europe, we can say that local economies are increasingly feeling the crisis, and we see countries like Spain that the housing sector is in full contraction (as an example).

For fundamental analysis we see that the Euro price of opposing forces is the following: In favor of a stronger Euro is: Oil and the U.S. mortgage sector indicators, against part for a weaker Euro is the economic weakness in the euro zone. The result of these forces will result in the direction of the trend of the Euro.

Technical Analysis

We can see that the price of the Euro has broken the upper channel resistance of 1.5800, implying that the next stop would be our super historical price resistance and the 1.6000. Viewing

daily chart (see figure below) we see that our technical indicators point to continued upward trend, being half way overbought zone.

It seems inevitable confrontation with the resistance of 1.6000. If the above.
We conclude that we are near the "moment of truth", and a confrontation with the barrier of 1.6000 seems to be inevitable. If the price bounces back (and always watching the oil market) is very possible that the price will return at least the 1.5800 area. If the price exceeds 1.6000 is recommended to go long because it is very possible that the next stop would be the 1.6500.

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My Forex Investment - Sunday July 6

The euro hit a giant drop in last Thursday, when all were betting on a rise in ECB interest rates (Bank European Central), which did not happen ... The Euro to reach 1.5909, 1.6000 dangerously close to the thinking was that the weakening of the dollar is going to build a new trend. But closed the day at 1.5704 weekly.

Fundamental Analysis

no mystery to the weak U.S. economy, and especially how to handle aggressive Fed monetary policy. Institution that has favored economic growth over inflation and the strength of its currency, which is the dollar.

indicators released during the week indicated a continuation of a weakening economy but still within its projections, ie a decline in non-farm Payrolls (employment level) in 62,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 5.5%. All information provided within analysts. However, given the surprise news at the same time 13:30 GMT July 3 Thursday surprised the market and this was the maintenance of interest rates in the euro zone by 4.25%. Market immediately reacted by sending the euro in more than 150 pips in a few hours ...

The announcement by the ECB is somewhat unexpected, since there is a strong inflationary pressure in the euro area, directly influenced by rising oil along with the rise in food prices.

A new scenario has opened, since the intention is not to allow more European Euro rises against the dollar, and favor the growth against inflation - measured according to the American position.

For the next week expect the president's speech from the Fed at 13:00 GMT for next Tuesday. This address will allow us to know the American position as the European position is clear: lower Euro!.

Technical Analysis

We can see clear that the price returns to the channel after having passed the top of it. The price returned to the news channel of the ECB, and then have a small reaction ending on Friday with a positive price, although it should be noted that the July 4th is a holiday in the United States, therefore traded volumes were much lower than a normal day.

Technically we can say that the price once the channel should continue to fall, and we find the technical indicators in oversold area (obviously after the rally during the week) to indicate entry Forex market short EUR / USD.La following figure shows what happened during the week.

We are in a situation of inability to safely recommend, because the news of the ECB influenced the price action, we recommend waiting until Tuesday's announcement of Mr. Bernanke for more evidence.

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My Forex Investment - June 29 - the barrier of 1.5800

The dollar has weakened for the second straight week in the FOREX Market EUR / USD. The news triggered influencing the market was the Fed's decision to keep interest rates in the United States.

The last three workdays if the euro strengthened more than 1%, closing the weeks to rising $ 1.5793.

analysts believe the European Central Bank should raise interest rates in the euro area by 25 points which would be sponsored by a weakening of the dollar higher.

Fundamental Analysis

The dollar has weakened against the Euro is more than 1% (1.12% to be exact) during the last week ...

As already mentioned, the Dollar price we see related to the price of oil , not coincidentally, as crude oil prices historical mark, the dollar has weakened. Therefore to make a correct analysis we have to see the oil market.

The oil market after hitting a record high reaching $ 143 a barrel after closing at 140.69 dollars. All medium-term forecasts indicate that oil should continue to rise, so you would expect more pressure to a weakening of the dollar.

could say that the price of the Euro should rise in the short term, however we believe we are in a boundary condition, since we have a set oil price in recent sessions and the Euro is facing resistance consideration at 1.5800.

must not forget that this is the first week July which will bring employment outcomes in the United States if the labor market continues to contract, a clear indication that the recession is maintained (analysts expect bad results), positively surprised if the outcome could change the scenario this market.

Technical Analysis

The Euro price is still maintained on the channel, this time a little below the top of the channel. Is a resistance that has managed to vote at the price of the Euro.

We can clearly see that the price is going to face the roof of the canal, and the result should give us the direction the price should take.

On the other hand we have the technical indicators are at the top, entering the overbought zone - without even showing signs of turnaround.



Our technical analysis tells us that we should expect the direction of the price, if short rebound is recommended to enter, and wait a profit over 100 pips, and if the price surpasses the 1.5800 (closing a daily session on the resistance) should be long because the next stop is the 1.6000.

In summary, we should expect the first session, as we are in a boundary condition to the expected behavior price on the resistance of 1.5800.