The Euro closed the month again lower against the dollar. This is the fourth consecutive month that the Euro is scored low. However, to see the weekly chart we can see that the Euro closed slightly higher at the beginning of the week at 1.2633 and 1.2730 to finish in the Dollar.
On the other hand, World stock markets could take a break in this week to see significant increases in their prices along with reduced volatility. Apparently, they are giving the first signs of some stability in financial markets.
not forget that this week will be elections in the United States so it is possible that during this week do not have strong market movements until after November 4.
Fundamental Analysis
The interest rate in the United States this week fell 1%, in line with market expectations. Immediately could see some reaction stock markets and a slight adjustment in the fall of the euro against the dollar - making the value of the euro back on 1.3000.
Now is the turn of the other central banks, starting with the European Central Bank must announce the new interest rate in the euro area on 6 November. All bets are down and this would bring a new impetus to the downward trend of the Euro. However, we believe this momentum should not be of great magnitude if the rate reduction is moderate because the market should have internalized this.
important indicators must be announced within this week is the level of employment in the United States this Friday. The market commitment to an unemployment rate of 6.2%. \\
For fundamental analysis we maintain a steady decline of the euro against the dollar.
Technical Analysis
not have been big changes since last week, from a technical standpoint. We still see that the price is under a trend line to the main floor, and even within a line acceleration downward, as shown in our next figure.
Technical indicators do not provide conclusive information on a possible adjustment or continuation of the dollar against the Euro.
Possible scenarios from a technical point of view are that the price can break the line acceleration with which the price of the Euro should rise again over the 1.3000 and stay up for awhile. Or on their way down the line acceleration becoming a resistance of consideration.
In summary, we argue that long-term maintain a low Euro against the dollar, now if the price breaks the line of acceleration is possible to produce a pause in the fall of the Euro and return to levels above 1.3000. Everything should depend upon the announcement of the new interest rate in the euro area this November 6.
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