As we announced last week, the situation was room for disagreement in the market to go long EUR / USD, although, we can congratulate this successful performance, consider step up precautions this week ... because We believe this first week of December may be given great surprises.
The month of November ended with a Euro to $ 1.2691, adding the fifth consecutive month that the Euro weakens against the dollar, however the week closes and the second consecutive week to boost the market FOREX EUR / USD. Basically, much of the gains by the Euro during the week was given during this last Friday, going back nearly 200 pips.
Fundamental Analysis
Now it's the turn of the European Central Bank to lower interest rates ... there is plenty of space to deliver the data of inflation in the Euro, because it was the lowest since 1991. Falling interest rates is imminent, the question is how: some say a half-point, three room. In any case, this information will be delivered this coming Thursday (see economic calendar Forex in courses). This can be added that the Fed has little room to maneuver to put the interest rate to 1%. Bringing great pressure to lower Euro. On the other hand, this also will be delivered next Friday's unemployment data for the U.S. economy, which last month was disastrous ... and predictions for this month are not optimistic, but perhaps a good surprise can bring little more strength to the U.S. Dollar.
think that the news will have a strong impact on the market Forex EUR / USD, so one can only hope ... and to this our recommendation to remain extremely cautious during the week.
Technical Analysis
Our technical indicators are aligned with the price of the Euro, once the gap has been overcome with the rise of the Euro during the week. However, with the sharp decline in the price of Euro on Friday reminded us of the high volatility and instability that persists in the financial markets. If we see our graph, we appreciate that the Euro price is among the line acceleration and to overcome and the main trend line downward, you can say that the price is within the congestion zone and is very possible that you can see a small channel between maximum and minimum (in the figure not shown), this channel will not consider it a very valid, although it has interesting points as strength in the 1.3000 and 1.2300 based on ...
Our Technical indicators tell us that the price of the Euro should continue to rise, as we see using the RSI. Although the stochastic indicator has given a sell signal Euros. Ie our technical indicators tell us conflicting information.
In short, it is clear that the market FOREX EUR / USD is in a phase of high volatility and uncertainty, also no doubt that the market is waiting for news to be delivered later this week ( Thursday and Friday). We believe that operate at this time is very risky due to two main reasons: fundamental analysis is pending news that may shake up the market and technical analysis information is contradictory ... sometimes gives great Furtos patience ...
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