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My Forex Investment - Closing Night

The dollar ended the month of August with their biggest rise since 1999. More than 900 pips against the Euro has fallen against the dollar. The main reasons for this rise in the dollar are two: Falling oil prices and strengthening U.S. economy.

Fundamental Analysis

As mentioned before the European economic situation was weak growing. In other words, the Euro zone economy is in the midst of the storm, while the U.S. economy is showing clear signs that the crisis is ending. All this should be reflected in the employment indicators are to be delivered this Friday (non farm payrols). If the employment of the United States presented good results (see http://www.cursos-forex.com/Calendario_economico.html selecting the date Friday, 5 September) we could say that the recession in the United States is now finally . Giving rise to a stronger dollar against the Euro of considerations that could readily lead under 1.4000.

This strengthening of the dollar should be accompanied with oil prices due to high correlation with both. Please note that the price of oil has a seasonality, and now that the northern hemisphere summer is ending (in winter increases demand and therefore the price) may retreat in oil prices is not as fast as everyone expects.

For fundamental analysis we maintain our projection of a stronger dollar. Therefore, we recommend going short in the market Forex EUR / USD.

Technical Analysis of the Euro price once passed the accelerating trend downward entered a stage of congestion, showing a resistance near 1.4800 and close to the 1.5500 support.
Yet the price of the EUR against the dollar has not touched the main trend line. Once the tap is likely to send prices sharply down, and think it is possible to generate a new line of acceleration to the downside. All this can be seen in the following figure.



On the technical indicators, as mentioned above, are not very useful when the price is trending. However, due to the breakdown of the accelerating trend line above we can see that the financial indicators have left the oversold area making room for a new steepest descent.

By analysis technical we can say that if the price bounces off the main trend line should be strong and go short if exceeded wait to see the new direction can take the price.