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My Forex Investment - waiting ....

As we announced last week, the situation was room for disagreement in the market to go long EUR / USD, although, we can congratulate this successful performance, consider step up precautions this week ... because We believe this first week of December may be given great surprises.

The month of November ended with a Euro to $ 1.2691, adding the fifth consecutive month that the Euro weakens against the dollar, however the week closes and the second consecutive week to boost the market FOREX EUR / USD. Basically, much of the gains by the Euro during the week was given during this last Friday, going back nearly 200 pips.

Fundamental Analysis

Now it's the turn of the European Central Bank to lower interest rates ... there is plenty of space to deliver the data of inflation in the Euro, because it was the lowest since 1991. Falling interest rates is imminent, the question is how: some say a half-point, three room. In any case, this information will be delivered this coming Thursday (see economic calendar Forex in courses). This can be added that the Fed has little room to maneuver to put the interest rate to 1%. Bringing great pressure to lower Euro.

On the other hand, this also will be delivered next Friday's unemployment data for the U.S. economy, which last month was disastrous ... and predictions for this month are not optimistic, but perhaps a good surprise can bring little more strength to the U.S. Dollar.

think that the news will have a strong impact on the market Forex EUR / USD, so one can only hope ... and to this our recommendation to remain extremely cautious during the week.

Technical Analysis

Our technical indicators are aligned with the price of the Euro, once the gap has been overcome with the rise of the Euro during the week. However, with the sharp decline in the price of Euro on Friday reminded us of the high volatility and instability that persists in the financial markets.

If we see our graph, we appreciate that the Euro price is among the line acceleration and to overcome and the main trend line downward, you can say that the price is within the congestion zone and is very possible that you can see a small channel between maximum and minimum (in the figure not shown), this channel will not consider it a very valid, although it has interesting points as strength in the 1.3000 and 1.2300 based on ...

Our

Technical indicators tell us that the price of the Euro should continue to rise, as we see using the RSI. Although the stochastic indicator has given a sell signal Euros. Ie our technical indicators tell us conflicting information.

In short, it is clear that the market FOREX EUR / USD is in a phase of high volatility and uncertainty, also no doubt that the market is waiting for news to be delivered later this week ( Thursday and Friday). We believe that operate at this time is very risky due to two main reasons: fundamental analysis is pending news that may shake up the market and technical analysis information is contradictory ... sometimes gives great Furtos patience ...

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My Forex Investment - Divergence in the EUR / USD ....

A new week of crisis could be seen in financial markets, leading to big falls in major stock indexes in the world. Large companies and corporations like General Motors and Citibank have fallen into the stock market to new levels, suggesting to many that the crisis is far from having passed and now it's up to the market "real" sense, ie market goods and consumption, and the labor market. Many analysts who once said the worst was over, now do not venture to indicate a date or a limit of this crisis.

This is backed up by the behavior of investors who have taken refuge in the major currencies, which are the Dollar and the Yen, making the price of the Euro has fallen to levels of 2006.

Such volatility in currency markets and to have ended at a point similar to that started during the week gives us to understand that there is a certain calmness and balance ... perhaps the calm before the storm ...

Fundamental Analysis

This week the dollar was flat closing at a price of 1.2582 dollars per euro, 1.2594 against the last week. As mentioned once high correlation with the dollar price of oil remains in force and, to fall in the price of oil has continued Sidon and unrelenting pointing the way for a stronger dollar.

However, they begin to hear voices that indicate that the fall of the Euro should be coming to an end, because the falling price of oil at some point should have a significant rebound when she begins to feel the demand for fuel by emerging markets like China and India.

For fundamental analysis we think the market is still undecided and may have an adjustment to the declining dollar, ie a rise in the price of Euro. Although we maintain our long-term projection that the dollar should be further strengthened.

Technical Analysis

The price of the Euro is in a congestion phase and its variation has been almost Impresept this week, closing with a negligible difference compared to the previous week. However, it seems that the Euro is gathering energy ...

As we see in our next figure, we see that the Euro price and technical indicator RSI are diverging (see: Forex Courses ). If we follow the technical theory, this divergence should translate into a strong desire for a Euro price rises, and a weakening dollar.



This divergence would be like a signal optimism in this crisis, because a change to an uptrend in the dollar would result in increased confidence in the stock market (less to investors covering Dollars) implying as signs of economic recovery.


In summary, we think it is very possible that there is Euro price recovery in the short term, but we arguing that the price of the Euro should continue to fall in the long term.

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My Forex Investment - Possible adjustment of Euro ....

A new week is about to begin and uncertainty, illiquidity and nervousness in the markets remained constant throughout the week.

The G20 meeting is setting the standard to "prevent" the occurrence of economic crises of this nature again. Designing government policies and specific controls on financial institutions. However, little has been said about the solution to this crisis in particular. Nor did we have seen a turning point in the environment in the financial markets ...

Fundamental Analysis

A new low was the week the Euro against the Dollar on Market Forex. While low during this week was not radical when closing in a Euro 1.2594 U.S. dollars as opposed to 1.2717 dollars a week, continues to mark a line downward trend. Bad

economic projections Eurozone and the U.S., recession in Germany, Italy, UK, Spain. The projections for 2009 are shrinking, unemployment rising and is expected that by 2010 the world economy changes direction and restart the cycle of sustained growth.

Our fundamental approach remains: the U.S. dollar is still the main global currency and in this time of crisis, all take refuge in low-risk financial instruments and investment dollars is the principal. And ls leading analysts argued that first the United States should have signs of recovery and then Europe.

Technical Analysis

As we announced last week, once the price of the Euro broke the-line acceleration to the low price was possible to enter a stage of congestion and congestion this stage (unchecked upward or downward) should end when the price cap with the main trend line.

However, when the price is in a congestion phase are very useful technical oscillators, so we did our analysis of technical oscillators:

We see that our technical Stochastic oscillator delivery a clear buy signal, ie the Euro should have a recovery during the week.

The MACD also notes that the price of the Euro should rise


So there may be a price adjustment to the rise of the Euro this coming week. However, we maintain our estimate of the Euro in the long term should continue to decline.

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My Forex Investment - Investment Uncertainty

A new week is about to begin and stock markets are nervous. Important events could be seen during the week, mainly the United States elections to which Wall Street responded "somewhat nervous" before a comment President-elect to say that rule to "Main Street" (main street) and not for "Wall Street". However, the market closing on Friday reassured blue.

Another event of importance during this coming week will be a big meeting of G 20, the results could mark a new milestone in the financial markets. This meeting indicates a new world precedent that is the recognition by the major economies of the world that this crisis is global and the solution or at least the measures to be taken will be comprehensive and coordinated. Finally, we called the attention of the leadership to take the Brazilian economy, maybe we'll see soon Brazilian Real in FOREX platforms ...

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. economy continues to show negative results, with a loss of jobs to 240,000 (Non-Farm Payroll) and unemployment rises to 6.5% of the workforce, against 6.1% the previous period. Also the U.S. housing market shows signs of weakness he gives a fall of 4.6% compared with September.
As for the Euro zone, although the news is not encouraging as well, reducing interest rates by the European Central Bank to 3.25 points, implying that future are also low come indicates a strong downward pressure on Euro.
The market has taken the situation on both sides of the Atlantic as a situation where "tables", maybe slightly in favor of the dollar.

summing up of our fundamental analysis we need the Fed is running short of ammunition to stimulate domestic demand, in contrast to the Euro zone where the European Central Bank still has to have an operating margin rate of 3, 25% allowing for further reductions. Therefore, we hold that the Euro should continue to weaken against the dollar in the long term.

Technical Analysis

As we predicted, the Euro broke the trend line downward acceleration, whose next stop should be facing the main trend line (see figure below).




This way, you can take through a secondary trend upward or congestion (to be relatively flat). Apparently, due to instability in the markets, it is likely that the second option, ie a phase where congestion is the path taken by the Euro. Within this phase are very useful technical oscillators.

Our technical oscillators are in the middle, ie a non-marking trend to continue, once again adding a level of uncertainty in the direction taken by the market.

In summary, we think that uncertainty as the main focus is now on the market FOREX EUR / USD . deem it wise not to take sides at this time and wait for the Euro that faces the main trend line

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My Forex - Markets Expectation

The Euro closed the month again lower against the dollar. This is the fourth consecutive month that the Euro is scored low. However, to see the weekly chart we can see that the Euro closed slightly higher at the beginning of the week at 1.2633 and 1.2730 to finish in the Dollar.

On the other hand, World stock markets could take a break in this week to see significant increases in their prices along with reduced volatility. Apparently, they are giving the first signs of some stability in financial markets.

not forget that this week will be elections in the United States so it is possible that during this week do not have strong market movements until after November 4.

Fundamental Analysis

The interest rate in the United States this week fell 1%, in line with market expectations. Immediately could see some reaction stock markets and a slight adjustment in the fall of the euro against the dollar - making the value of the euro back on 1.3000.

Now is the turn of the other central banks, starting with the European Central Bank must announce the new interest rate in the euro area on 6 November. All bets are down and this would bring a new impetus to the downward trend of the Euro. However, we believe this momentum should not be of great magnitude if the rate reduction is moderate because the market should have internalized this.

important indicators must be announced within this week is the level of employment in the United States this Friday. The market commitment to an unemployment rate of 6.2%. \\

For fundamental analysis we maintain a steady decline of the euro against the dollar.

Technical Analysis

not have been big changes since last week, from a technical standpoint. We still see that the price is under a trend line to the main floor, and even within a line acceleration downward, as shown in our next figure.



Technical indicators do not provide conclusive information on a possible adjustment or continuation of the dollar against the Euro.

Possible scenarios from a technical point of view are that the price can break the line acceleration with which the price of the Euro should rise again over the 1.3000 and stay up for awhile. Or on their way down the line acceleration becoming a resistance of consideration.

In summary, we argue that long-term maintain a low Euro against the dollar, now if the price breaks the line of acceleration is possible to produce a pause in the fall of the Euro and return to levels above 1.3000. Everything should depend upon the announcement of the new interest rate in the euro area this November 6.