Sunday, August 31, 2008

My 3 Year Old Has Stinky Urine

My Forex Investment - Closing Night

The dollar ended the month of August with their biggest rise since 1999. More than 900 pips against the Euro has fallen against the dollar. The main reasons for this rise in the dollar are two: Falling oil prices and strengthening U.S. economy.

Fundamental Analysis
As mentioned before the European economic situation was weak growing. In other words, the Euro zone economy is in the midst of the storm, while the U.S. economy is showing clear signs that the crisis is ending. All this should be reflected in the employment indicators are to be delivered this Friday (non farm payrols). If the employment of the United States presented good results (see http://www.cursos-forex.com/Calendario_economico.html selecting the date Friday, 5 September) we could say that the recession in the United States is now finally . Giving rise to a stronger dollar against the Euro of considerations that could readily lead under 1.4000.

This strengthening of the dollar should be accompanied with oil prices due to high correlation with both. Please note that the price of oil has a seasonality, and now that the northern hemisphere summer is ending (in winter increases demand and therefore the price) may retreat in oil prices is not as fast as everyone expects.

For fundamental analysis we maintain our projection of a stronger dollar. Therefore, we recommend going short in the market Forex EUR / USD.


Technical Analysis of the Euro price once passed the accelerating trend downward entered a stage of congestion, showing a resistance near 1.4800 and close to the 1.5500 support.
Yet the price of the EUR against the dollar has not touched the main trend line. Once the tap is likely to send prices sharply down, and think it is possible to generate a new line of acceleration to the downside. All this can be seen in the following figure.



On the technical indicators, as mentioned above, are not very useful when the price is trending. However, due to the breakdown of the accelerating trend line above we can see that the financial indicators have left the oversold area making room for a new steepest descent.

By analysis technical we can say that if the price bounces off the main trend line should be strong and go short if exceeded wait to see the new direction can take the price.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

How Do Guys Tuck As A Drag Queen

My Forex Investment - August 24 - Crash Imminent

As indicated last week it was very likely to be a fit in the EURUSD FOREX market allowing the Euro to regain ground and this adjustment allowed the Euro move up to 1.4900, rebounding and closing one in the 1 , 4793.
The dollar has gained nearly 8% against the Euro since its peak at 1.6038, while oil has fallen nearly 22% from 147 a barrel to close at 114 a barrel.

Fundamental Analysis
The correlation between oil and the dollar has once again shaken the market. It was found on Thursday as the oil strongly advance the Euro did the same climbing to 1.4900.

Within the week, listening to Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, we see that we are entering uncertain ground, noting that inflationary expectations are uncertain. Dollar steady with a fall in prices of products (commodities) reduce inflationary pressure in the United States certainly, but no one can guarantee this trend ...

U.S. economic indicators show no significant improvement, and can be seen that indicators of home sales in the United States remains at an unsatisfactory area (note that if this indicator shows improvement would be an indicator that the recession in the United States has been completed and would enter a new stage completely).

The Euro zone economic indicators and the forecasts show a weak economy, therefore we can say that economic expectations in the euro area remain the same as last week.

Technical Analysis
As noted earlier, it was quite possible that a market adjustment FOREX EUR / USD, and we see how the Euro breaks the line acceleration. Now, the Euro price will be facing the main trend line (brown) and the outcome of this clash should indicate the direction of the Euro.



Our technical indicators, which are not very useful when the price is trending, but we always recommend looking at them, have left us that the oversold area paving the way for a new low. As shown in the figure above, we can see the stochastic indicator, and positively sloped away from the oversold area.

For fundamental analysis we can see a degree of uncertainty, which surely should resolve with inflation indicators in the U.S. and the eurozone, and especially with the results of the employment situation of the United States the first Friday in September. While our technical analysis indicates that the Euro should face the main trend line. If you can not cross recommend going short.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Mexican Lacrosse Pinnies

My Investment Forex - Dollar uptrend!

All we have seen how the dollar and oil have maintained their correlation. Oil retreating more than 20% from its peak, and the stronger dollar is 10% from its low against the EUR.

Fundamental Analysis
Indicators U.S. economy still giving mixed values \u200b\u200band the results are significant negative indicators such as housing which was a minimum of 17 years, making us think that the cause of the economic crisis in America is not completely overcome.

On the other hand, the Euro zone continues to display indicators in the United Kingdom joining RED bordering a recessionary situation. More than one view, the fact is that the housing crisis is already in Europe.
Low oil
provides a certain margin of maneuver for the European Bank to lower the rate.

Therefore, by maintaining a critical analysis of the dollar recovery against the Euro. Therefore, in the FOREX Market EUR / USD recommend going short.

Technical Analysis
The Euro has been falling faster, better, keeping meteoric consecutive 5-week low.

We see in the chart analysis of the Euro the price is within a line of downward acceleration. And there may be an adjustment to the trend line to the main floor.



All technical indicators show on sale, but the technical indicators are not very reliable when the price is trending as in our case, we think are signs that can produce a setting.

Anyway the forecast remains go short on the market FOREX EUR / USD

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Can You Get Herpes From Dry Humping?

My Forex Investment - August 2 - A beautiful canal ...

A new week is about to begin and we welcome as our tests have been successful. Always maintaining restraint, caution and discipline we deserved to congratulate the success of our recent operations.
As we have mentioned several times, all of our analysis have a temporary account daily to weekly, so do not recommend intraday operations.

Anyway, back to our favorite Forex market, which is the EUR / USD we can see that the price is within a beautiful downstream channel, which challenges us to take positions.

addition to the above two announcements rocked the forex market EUR / USD: a loss that was smaller than expected jobs in the United States and other bad news for the economy in the euro area, this time in Germany where the indicator retail sales (detail), an important indicator for measuring consumer, fell more than expected (1.4%).

Fundamental Analysis

Despite the result of non-farm-payroll better than expected, the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy was worse than expected. There is no doubt that the U.S. economy is having mixed indicators, becoming positive surprises better than negative surprises. And neither can deny that the news from the euro zone are getting worse, ie, negative economic indicators are increasingly seeing.

Oil continued to bounce off its low for the area of \u200b\u200b$ 120, closing the week at $ 125 a barrel. The price closed higher, but we think the uptrend is over. A complete analysis was performed on the following link for a student of one of our sponsors Forex courses. In which states that it is very possible that oil will drop further.

The level of employment in the U.S. economy probably will become the focus of importance to measure the recovery - the indicators given an unemployment rate of 5.7% when 5.6% was expected. This suggests that the Fed would not soon raise rates.

On the other hand, Europe, with lower oil prices reduce inflationary pressure, more negative economic indicators makes us think that the Euro area should maintain the interest rate.

For fundamental analysis we think the dollar should be further strengthened and every hike that the Euro is expected a rebound.

Technical Analysis

The price of the Euro is in a beautiful canal and the price closed down together in the middle of it. Technically, the price should rise in the early days of the week should not exceed 1.5680. It is hoped that once touch the top of the channel the price should come down. Surely the next stop should be the 1.5350 low. After overcoming the price could easily reach 1.5000 (But it's for later).