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My Forex Investment - June 1916 - Caution

This Week ending the U.S. dollar gained ground against the euro, closing at 1.5380 dollars. On Monday, June 8 was quoted at 1.5778 during the week gaining 2.5%.
U.S. economic indicators, mainly on consumption gave a positive surprise, rising more than twice what economists expected. This is a clear sign of accelerating U.S. economy, or rather, a serious departure from a recessionary trend.

All the above can lead us to encourage to enter the Forex market short EUR / USD, but beware ...

Fundamental Analysis

Due to the good U.S. retail trade, being a key step confirmation of the uptrend of the dollar against the Euro, there is next to an inflationary scenario. That is, an economic acceleration in the U.S. with indications of inflation, adding very low interest rate with respect to the European pair. All this makes us think of an imminent rate hike in the short term in the United States would bring a stronger dollar against the Euro.

Along with this auspicious scenario for the dollar must be added a political factor in Europe by insisting on maintaining a strong dollar of the actual.

This next week will deliver the following economic indicators, the most important for the European sector: Monday 16 at 10:00 AM GMT results of European inflation and economic perception on Tuesday, 17 in Germany. These indicators, especially the first, if they deliver low inflation The ECB may consider cutting rates, which greatly favor in the U.S. Dollar.

For fundamentals, we see confirmation of a stronger dollar.

Technical Analysis

studying our charts and indicators we see an extreme situation, which may affect our future decisions. The first thing we recommend is CAUTION.

If we see our chart by chart analysis can be seen that the price closed at the lower limit of our channel. If in the first session of Monday the price breaks the channel base, would constitute a clear signal to go short, and can ensure a lot of pips.

other hand our technical indicators remain a sign of downtrend, however our attention momentum ended with a positive trend . Along with a stochastic approaching oversold area, we call for caution.

Therefore, if you were to rebound to the upside, it is very likely to return to levels of around 1.5500.


In conclusion, it looks very likely that the dollar will further strengthen the Euro, which hold in the long term, although in the short term we see that there are technical signs that may lead to an adjustment upward Euro. So Monday's session will be crucial to confirm the downward trend.