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My Forex Investment - June 29 - the barrier of 1.5800

The dollar has weakened for the second straight week in the FOREX Market EUR / USD. The news triggered influencing the market was the Fed's decision to keep interest rates in the United States.

The last three workdays if the euro strengthened more than 1%, closing the weeks to rising $ 1.5793.

analysts believe the European Central Bank should raise interest rates in the euro area by 25 points which would be sponsored by a weakening of the dollar higher.

Fundamental Analysis

The dollar has weakened against the Euro is more than 1% (1.12% to be exact) during the last week ...

As already mentioned, the Dollar price we see related to the price of oil , not coincidentally, as crude oil prices historical mark, the dollar has weakened. Therefore to make a correct analysis we have to see the oil market.

The oil market after hitting a record high reaching $ 143 a barrel after closing at 140.69 dollars. All medium-term forecasts indicate that oil should continue to rise, so you would expect more pressure to a weakening of the dollar.

could say that the price of the Euro should rise in the short term, however we believe we are in a boundary condition, since we have a set oil price in recent sessions and the Euro is facing resistance consideration at 1.5800.

must not forget that this is the first week July which will bring employment outcomes in the United States if the labor market continues to contract, a clear indication that the recession is maintained (analysts expect bad results), positively surprised if the outcome could change the scenario this market.

Technical Analysis

The Euro price is still maintained on the channel, this time a little below the top of the channel. Is a resistance that has managed to vote at the price of the Euro.

We can clearly see that the price is going to face the roof of the canal, and the result should give us the direction the price should take.

On the other hand we have the technical indicators are at the top, entering the overbought zone - without even showing signs of turnaround.



Our technical analysis tells us that we should expect the direction of the price, if short rebound is recommended to enter, and wait a profit over 100 pips, and if the price surpasses the 1.5800 (closing a daily session on the resistance) should be long because the next stop is the 1.6000.

In summary, we should expect the first session, as we are in a boundary condition to the expected behavior price on the resistance of 1.5800.

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My Forex Investment - June 22 - attentive, ready ....

The dollar was sharply lower against the euro due to speculation the Federal Reserve is not in their plans to raise the rate of interest.

Because they thought there was room for a rate hike, and this was rejected by the Fed, the chances of the Euro reaches 1.6000.

Fundamental Analysis

Following our line last week, when we took the opportunity to correct a rebound of the Euro ... continuing with the same confidence, we think that the Euro should be strengthened due to a reason Weight:

Dollar indexing with oil: OPEC has indicated it will not increase oil production, blaming high prices are due to speculators, this will automatically translate into an increase in oil prices and with this a weakening of the dollar.
Therefore, we believe that the Euro would strengthen against the dollar.

Technical Analysis

could clearly see a price rebound in the bottom of the channel, sending the price up.

The figure below shows the price rebound in the channel:



As for our technical indicators have mixed results, with our RSI indicator with a positive slope, and our momentum indicator diverging sloping with the price (low signal) - we suggest that maybe something great can happen. .. and would be a sharp decline ...

Finally, having a closing price at 1.5600 can be taken as exact a psychological ceiling.

For technical analysis we find that the price stays within the channel upward direction, with mixed results indicators, which do not give us great light.

On the other hand, by fundamental analysis, we find that the announcement of OPEC not to increase production still is not built into the price, which on Monday should be reflected.

recommend taking no position, and if the price of Euro rises to 1.5800 area - expected to give technical indicators signal into short position, because we think the price should be maintained within the channel.

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My Forex Investment - June 1916 - Caution

This Week ending the U.S. dollar gained ground against the euro, closing at 1.5380 dollars. On Monday, June 8 was quoted at 1.5778 during the week gaining 2.5%.
U.S. economic indicators, mainly on consumption gave a positive surprise, rising more than twice what economists expected. This is a clear sign of accelerating U.S. economy, or rather, a serious departure from a recessionary trend.

All the above can lead us to encourage to enter the Forex market short EUR / USD, but beware ...

Fundamental Analysis

Due to the good U.S. retail trade, being a key step confirmation of the uptrend of the dollar against the Euro, there is next to an inflationary scenario. That is, an economic acceleration in the U.S. with indications of inflation, adding very low interest rate with respect to the European pair. All this makes us think of an imminent rate hike in the short term in the United States would bring a stronger dollar against the Euro.

Along with this auspicious scenario for the dollar must be added a political factor in Europe by insisting on maintaining a strong dollar of the actual.

This next week will deliver the following economic indicators, the most important for the European sector: Monday 16 at 10:00 AM GMT results of European inflation and economic perception on Tuesday, 17 in Germany. These indicators, especially the first, if they deliver low inflation The ECB may consider cutting rates, which greatly favor in the U.S. Dollar.

For fundamentals, we see confirmation of a stronger dollar.

Technical Analysis

studying our charts and indicators we see an extreme situation, which may affect our future decisions. The first thing we recommend is CAUTION.

If we see our chart by chart analysis can be seen that the price closed at the lower limit of our channel. If in the first session of Monday the price breaks the channel base, would constitute a clear signal to go short, and can ensure a lot of pips.

other hand our technical indicators remain a sign of downtrend, however our attention momentum ended with a positive trend . Along with a stochastic approaching oversold area, we call for caution.

Therefore, if you were to rebound to the upside, it is very likely to return to levels of around 1.5500.


In conclusion, it looks very likely that the dollar will further strengthen the Euro, which hold in the long term, although in the short term we see that there are technical signs that may lead to an adjustment upward Euro. So Monday's session will be crucial to confirm the downward trend.