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My Forex Investment - July 13 "the moment of truth"

This week, the Euro closed at 1.5932 dollars, almost a record ... The financial indicators of the U.S. economy made a big warning sign to be released the wrong time and the company Fannie Freddie specializing in mortgage loans.

The state's main buyer mortgage debt is unfortunate, implying that not enough capital to cover mortgage losses.
to disclosure of this news the market reacted violently by devaluing the dollar in the FOREX market about 1% in just one day.

Fundamental Analysis

think that conditions have not changed, the price of the dollar is still influenced by the price of the dollar, as well as economic indicators of the U.S. economy is showing slight signs recovery, or at least are within the ranges the market expects.

However, the news about Fannie and Freddie is a blow because the "source" of the crisis (mortgage crisis) is not yet resolved.

In Europe, we can say that local economies are increasingly feeling the crisis, and we see countries like Spain that the housing sector is in full contraction (as an example).

For fundamental analysis we see that the Euro price of opposing forces is the following: In favor of a stronger Euro is: Oil and the U.S. mortgage sector indicators, against part for a weaker Euro is the economic weakness in the euro zone. The result of these forces will result in the direction of the trend of the Euro.

Technical Analysis

We can see that the price of the Euro has broken the upper channel resistance of 1.5800, implying that the next stop would be our super historical price resistance and the 1.6000. Viewing

daily chart (see figure below) we see that our technical indicators point to continued upward trend, being half way overbought zone.

It seems inevitable confrontation with the resistance of 1.6000. If the above.
We conclude that we are near the "moment of truth", and a confrontation with the barrier of 1.6000 seems to be inevitable. If the price bounces back (and always watching the oil market) is very possible that the price will return at least the 1.5800 area. If the price exceeds 1.6000 is recommended to go long because it is very possible that the next stop would be the 1.6500.

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My Forex Investment - Sunday July 6

The euro hit a giant drop in last Thursday, when all were betting on a rise in ECB interest rates (Bank European Central), which did not happen ... The Euro to reach 1.5909, 1.6000 dangerously close to the thinking was that the weakening of the dollar is going to build a new trend. But closed the day at 1.5704 weekly.

Fundamental Analysis

no mystery to the weak U.S. economy, and especially how to handle aggressive Fed monetary policy. Institution that has favored economic growth over inflation and the strength of its currency, which is the dollar.

indicators released during the week indicated a continuation of a weakening economy but still within its projections, ie a decline in non-farm Payrolls (employment level) in 62,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 5.5%. All information provided within analysts. However, given the surprise news at the same time 13:30 GMT July 3 Thursday surprised the market and this was the maintenance of interest rates in the euro zone by 4.25%. Market immediately reacted by sending the euro in more than 150 pips in a few hours ...

The announcement by the ECB is somewhat unexpected, since there is a strong inflationary pressure in the euro area, directly influenced by rising oil along with the rise in food prices.

A new scenario has opened, since the intention is not to allow more European Euro rises against the dollar, and favor the growth against inflation - measured according to the American position.

For the next week expect the president's speech from the Fed at 13:00 GMT for next Tuesday. This address will allow us to know the American position as the European position is clear: lower Euro!.

Technical Analysis

We can see clear that the price returns to the channel after having passed the top of it. The price returned to the news channel of the ECB, and then have a small reaction ending on Friday with a positive price, although it should be noted that the July 4th is a holiday in the United States, therefore traded volumes were much lower than a normal day.

Technically we can say that the price once the channel should continue to fall, and we find the technical indicators in oversold area (obviously after the rally during the week) to indicate entry Forex market short EUR / USD.La following figure shows what happened during the week.

We are in a situation of inability to safely recommend, because the news of the ECB influenced the price action, we recommend waiting until Tuesday's announcement of Mr. Bernanke for more evidence.