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My Forex Investment - Time of Crisis

A turbulent week is almost over, stock markets have continued with a brutal volatility. Amazing historical lows and have appreciated, low in the order of 9% in one day.

The "crisis" is affecting all sectors, some sectors of the products has been as precipitous as the stock market. With oil at 64 USD and the price of copper at $ 1.64 a pound. And they all ask the same questions: Where is the floor? and When will affect the markets 'real'?.

The first question, but nobody is certain, there is talk of Dow Jones with super flat for the 7500 points and the second question has no response at this time.

ads are seen strategic summits of the major countries of the world, elections in the United States can bring a change of "mind" and some return of confidence. There is talk of "refound" the system and total intervention ... What else can be done to return investment?.

Fundamental Analysis

The Euro has to continue to fall against the Dollar, the Euro zone exposure, note that the big banks that have lent money to emerging markets are Europeans. And commodity prices have collapsed and you will start to produce at a loss as the case of copper mining.

Major Euro-zone countries like Germany show signs of contraction in economic activity, that country being the powerhouse of Europe.

However, the most important data indicating that the Euro should continue to depreciate against the dollar is that investors are being covered with hard currency, the main and then Dollar Yen.
For fundamental analysis hold a continuation of the low price of Euro against the Dollar. And it is very possible that we return to him 1 to 1 in the near future. We do not see anything that may hold the Euro at the moment.

Technical Analysis

Making a brief chart analysis we can see that the price of the Euro is in a bearish line acceleration and turn away from the main trend line downward.
This opens the way to a possible price adjustments without necessarily mean a turnaround.

on our technical indicators are clearly oversold in the area, but when the price is with a strong tendency reliability is reduced. Therefore we consider not take them into account.

All this you can see in the following figure:


In summary, we believe that we should maintain a low price Euro against the Dollar.

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My Forex Investment - Congestion Markets

A new week is about to begin and volatility in financial markets along with high liquidity (ie very few people investing) is the constant.

world's stock markets have yet to find their way to make a solid upward trend for retrieving historical losses have been in recent weeks.

Forex Market, for its part has also been shaken by the illiquidity causing many businesses can not be made. And especially the Forex market EUR / USD did not show a high volatility during the past week the Euro closing at $ 1.3408 versus the previous week in 1.3394 - making a difference almost negligible.

Fundamental Analysis

As we have mentioned several times the currency of a country and no area is more than the economic health of this compared to another area or country. That is, when talking about the Euro and the Dollar compared the economic situation facing each other. At this point both economies show great weakness and is common to hear "bailout" on both sides of the Atlantic. Therefore we predict that major changes in this market should not occur in the short term.

add great liquidity, property main in times of crisis when investors "hide" their money and take refuge in low-risk financial products such as Treasury Bonds U.S..

All this leads us to predict that the market should behave plan, as the same volatility of the NYSE the European stock markets suffer. Still
argue that the Euro should continue to weaken against the dollar because interest rates in the euro area still has much room to lower, while the Fed at a rate of 1.5% per year seems to be that you are on your floor

Technical Analysis Technical analysis also
gives us clear trend signals. At this moment the Euro is in a large downward trend in our chart analysis, however, the line broke down acceleration (see article above) with which he did enter the price in a congestion zone.

As the days pass the Euro price will be faced with two lines of resistance, one that should draw earlier this week in which the price of the Euro - the breaks - should be strengthened or else it could send down. Then, it would be the main trend line that if were to break would be a clear sign of change in trend.

Our technical indicators support our view that the market is waiting, we appreciate our RSI indicator with a slight negative slope indicating that the price is still in a downtrend, but with great weakness.

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My Forex Investment - Unstable Markets

On the crisis that the world is facing, apart from total shock, we can not bet on any short-term solution, which itself could venture timidly is that the end of it (ie low bags) would soon happen and many analysts think there is room for a drop of 10% ... still is, a black week more to start taking some upward trend ... but we repeat that it is a timid assessment.

Fundamental Analysis

A new low came in the forex market EUR / USD. Due to the low rate of European Central Bank (although the rate has also declined in the United States). However, the spaces to reduce the rate is much larger in the euro area, therefore the market bet on further declines in the euro area.
now betting on the Euro is that it should reach $ 1.25.

Technical Analysis Technical analysis on we see that the Euro is in a downward trend, we think that technical indicators are not relevant against a tendency so marked, and of course there are all these into the oversold zone. Due to the volatile market we see a definite prediction impossible.




In summary, we believe that markets are a very unstable and it is advisable to stay away for now. And as always, maintain our vision of a stronger dollar against the Euro.

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My Forex Investment - Possible adjustment

During the week the dollar has gained ground to record levels against the Euro. After approval by Congress of U.S. rescue plan by the government of the United States amounting to 700 billion dollars.

The dollar has advanced 5.7% during the week to close at 1.3772, the biggest gain in a week since the advent of the Euro in 1999, setting a record.

Fundamental Analysis

markets set a price based on supply and demand. And both the supply and demand have a number of factors such as expectations, differences in interest rates, etc. In this case, the price of the dollar has strengthened against the Euro because of demand for funds either to fill positions or to cover a "bailout."

U.S. economic indicators have been worse than expected, the level of employment based on the "Non-Farm Payroll" fell to 159,000 jobs, while the market expected a reduction in 100,000. This indicates that the recession is far from gone, and our perception of the "worst" and happened was wrong. All this should give a strong pressure on the dollar in its devaluation, but the opposite is happening with your assessment.

think the market is demanding a lot of dollars against the Euro (note that the Yen has appreciated) because institutions have to cover the bailout. And once this demand has been satisfied the Euro should have a strong rebound upward, assuming it meets the bad indicators.

Technical Analysis

In technical analysis is taking a very interesting situation: the price of Euro faces a line downward acceleration with a high slope, our technical indicators are in the overbought zone. Everything seems to be that the Euro is ready to rebound. As shown in the figure below.




If the price of Euro breaks through the line acceleration is expected a rebound in mind that surely should lead price on 1.4000. If he fails should maintain its free fall.


In conclusion, we think the price of the dollar is rising against the euro due to large institutions have to cover their positions due to the government's emergency plan in the United States and technical analysis we face a strong possibility that Euro rebound and the market adjust.
We maintain our view that the dollar is in a bullish trend against the Euro.