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My Forex Investment - July 26 - alert and ready ....

the dollar closed 0.9% higher against the Euro, the negative end of the Euro against the dollar marks a second consecutive week of weakening.

News of the European economies are weak and many analysts think the dollar is coming back. Predicting a low price of 1.5000 by the end of the year.

Fundamental Analysis

As we have mentioned repeatedly, there are different forces pushing the dollar to a different address. As the main U.S. and European economic situation.

The U.S. economic situation is giving better results in fact some are surprising. Thus we have indicators of housing in the United States were mixed (expected bad). A result worse than expected was the home sales on Thursday handed over 24 to 15:00 GMT. However, the sale of new homes delivered on Friday, 25 gave a surprising 6% higher than expected - the results of both indicators were within the range. Anyway we can conclude that U.S. economic indicators are improving a lot.

On the other hand, we have the results of the European economy and the inflationary problems found. All this leads to a pessimistic picture on the Euro area, is a clear example the level of pessimism in Germany where the day indicator 24 on Thursday economic sense for business was worse than expected.

An interesting point is the oil situation, which has fallen more than 10% in the last 2 weeks without having passed into consideration Forex EUR / USD.

All this can lead to the conclusion that there is much room for strengthening the dollar, but this closed higher, and it is advisable to see our technical analysis

Technical Analysis

If we see our figure, we see Bollinger Bands ( Forex courses) in which the price bounced off the bottom band making the Euro rises to approach the moving average.

On our technical indicators have mixed results according to the current situation. On the one hand and the RSI indicators that do not define the situation, on the other, indicating stochastic oversold signal, the momentum indicated a downward trend.

What is certain, that the price stays in its channel side, making our oscillators are more important than ever.

think that it is expected that the price to the early hours of Monday's rise a little further to 1.5800 levels, to meet the moving average. If you manage to pass it (which I do not think) should return to the levels of the past few weeks, but would have the desired rebound that should push hard to the 1.5500 area.

bet to a stronger dollar, and we recommend going short with the Euro where it can rebound (probably in the area of \u200b\u200b1.5800)

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My Forex Investment - July 20 "The Return of the Dollar?"

As I mentioned last week, the euro would inevitably face the super strength of 1.6000 ... as a result of this confrontation there was a strong rebound that led to the low price of 1.5800, before recovering rising to close at 1.5855.

The economic situation in the United States remains fragile, however you can see an improvement. It is the first time in a long time that the credit sector delivers positive news as large financial institutions like Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co would be reporting better results for the second quarter. Within this plan, the biggest news remarkable is the willingness of the Fed to support the company's losses Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac credit attacking the problem at its root.

Fundamental Analysis

forces pushing for a lower dollar has lost ground, we see a sharp drop in oil prices, over 10%, breaking the uptrend line. This dramatic fall can be a crude indication that the famous "bubble of the products being deflating ...

On the other hand, European, and especially of Germany delivered very encouraging values \u200b\u200bsuch as confidence level investors has fallen to levels records. Another example is the result measured in Scotland where you could see a sharp contraction in manufacturing. All this gives us clear signs of weakness in the euro area.

And finally we have a situation optimistic the U.S. economy, on one hand the financial sector to deliver better results than expected and the other a government attitude of attacking the root problem.

For Fundamental analysis can not appreciate a better situation for the dollar recovery.

However, our attention EXTREME that the Euro has closed higher, with a collapse of oil, the odds for a dollar more strong and a weaker Euro. All this leads us to be very cautious.

think the market is still in doubt, the Euro price is stable, and certainly the direction it takes this week could mark the medium-term trend. News
advertised are interesting indicators of the housing market to be delivered on Thursday related to mortgages and stocks Friday as expected level of new mortgage sales in the United States

Technical Analysis

Price Euro hit a record high of over 1.6000 (reaching up to 1.6040) but there was strong rebound sending the price up to 1.5900 Euro. And then continue down to the 1.5800 area bouncing back to close at 1.5855 rising.

Our technical indicators give mixed signals, first the stochastic indicates further decline, the RSI indicates neutrality, the momentum indicates that the price of the Euro should rise.



What I can say is that is being compared with 2 resistors, one higher in the 1.6000 and another at 1.5800. Where to drill the price will make a definite trend.

In conclusion, for all fundamental analysis indicates a strengthening of the dollar against the Euro, while you are waiting for further news as the result of real estate in the United States to be delivered at the end of the working week. And technical analysis can be seen lateralization of prices and make a definite trend. If the price drops are recommended to enter the 1.5800 short.

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My Forex Investment - July 13 "the moment of truth"

This week, the Euro closed at 1.5932 dollars, almost a record ... The financial indicators of the U.S. economy made a big warning sign to be released the wrong time and the company Fannie Freddie specializing in mortgage loans.

The state's main buyer mortgage debt is unfortunate, implying that not enough capital to cover mortgage losses.
to disclosure of this news the market reacted violently by devaluing the dollar in the FOREX market about 1% in just one day.

Fundamental Analysis

think that conditions have not changed, the price of the dollar is still influenced by the price of the dollar, as well as economic indicators of the U.S. economy is showing slight signs recovery, or at least are within the ranges the market expects.

However, the news about Fannie and Freddie is a blow because the "source" of the crisis (mortgage crisis) is not yet resolved.

In Europe, we can say that local economies are increasingly feeling the crisis, and we see countries like Spain that the housing sector is in full contraction (as an example).

For fundamental analysis we see that the Euro price of opposing forces is the following: In favor of a stronger Euro is: Oil and the U.S. mortgage sector indicators, against part for a weaker Euro is the economic weakness in the euro zone. The result of these forces will result in the direction of the trend of the Euro.

Technical Analysis

We can see that the price of the Euro has broken the upper channel resistance of 1.5800, implying that the next stop would be our super historical price resistance and the 1.6000. Viewing

daily chart (see figure below) we see that our technical indicators point to continued upward trend, being half way overbought zone.

It seems inevitable confrontation with the resistance of 1.6000. If the above.
We conclude that we are near the "moment of truth", and a confrontation with the barrier of 1.6000 seems to be inevitable. If the price bounces back (and always watching the oil market) is very possible that the price will return at least the 1.5800 area. If the price exceeds 1.6000 is recommended to go long because it is very possible that the next stop would be the 1.6500.

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My Forex Investment - Sunday July 6

The euro hit a giant drop in last Thursday, when all were betting on a rise in ECB interest rates (Bank European Central), which did not happen ... The Euro to reach 1.5909, 1.6000 dangerously close to the thinking was that the weakening of the dollar is going to build a new trend. But closed the day at 1.5704 weekly.

Fundamental Analysis

no mystery to the weak U.S. economy, and especially how to handle aggressive Fed monetary policy. Institution that has favored economic growth over inflation and the strength of its currency, which is the dollar.

indicators released during the week indicated a continuation of a weakening economy but still within its projections, ie a decline in non-farm Payrolls (employment level) in 62,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 5.5%. All information provided within analysts. However, given the surprise news at the same time 13:30 GMT July 3 Thursday surprised the market and this was the maintenance of interest rates in the euro zone by 4.25%. Market immediately reacted by sending the euro in more than 150 pips in a few hours ...

The announcement by the ECB is somewhat unexpected, since there is a strong inflationary pressure in the euro area, directly influenced by rising oil along with the rise in food prices.

A new scenario has opened, since the intention is not to allow more European Euro rises against the dollar, and favor the growth against inflation - measured according to the American position.

For the next week expect the president's speech from the Fed at 13:00 GMT for next Tuesday. This address will allow us to know the American position as the European position is clear: lower Euro!.

Technical Analysis

We can see clear that the price returns to the channel after having passed the top of it. The price returned to the news channel of the ECB, and then have a small reaction ending on Friday with a positive price, although it should be noted that the July 4th is a holiday in the United States, therefore traded volumes were much lower than a normal day.

Technically we can say that the price once the channel should continue to fall, and we find the technical indicators in oversold area (obviously after the rally during the week) to indicate entry Forex market short EUR / USD.La following figure shows what happened during the week.

We are in a situation of inability to safely recommend, because the news of the ECB influenced the price action, we recommend waiting until Tuesday's announcement of Mr. Bernanke for more evidence.